Schedule Risk & Sensitivity Analysis
Overview
Schedule risk management focuses on identifying threats to committed delivery milestones, quantifying their impact through sensitivity analysis, and defining mitigation pathways before critical path breach occurs.
Primary Risk Drivers
- Utility approval volatility
- Long-lead equipment supply variability
- Commissioning workforce overlap
- Cross-site integration window conflicts
Risk Register (Schedule Focus)
| ID | Risk Description | Impact | Likelihood | RAG | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SR-01 | Utility approval delay beyond forecast | Direct critical path impact; commissioning start shifts | Medium | Amber | Early escalation + parallel documentation submission |
| SR-02 | Long-lead equipment shipment delay | Install/test resequencing required across two sites | High | Red | Alternate supplier evaluation + buffer creation |
| SR-03 | Commissioning resource contention | Float erosion across near-critical activities | Medium | Amber | Regional resource rebalancing + surge support |
| SR-04 | Integration window misalignment | Downstream operational readiness shift | Low | Green | Confirm integration slot early + publish dependency map |
Sensitivity Scenarios
- Scenario A: +15 working day power delay → Committed milestone risk increases to 40%
- Scenario B: +30 working day procurement delay → Recovery plan required
- Scenario C: Workforce capacity reduced by 20% → Near-critical band expansion
Escalation Triggers
- Committed date risk exceeds 5% tolerance
- Critical milestone float < 5 working days
- Repeated forecast volatility across 2+ review cycles